Tragedy set to unfold in Tropics (update)

The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high on March 13, 2024. The image below shows the situation over the years through March 13, 2024, when the average daily surface air temperature was 26.9°C and 1.4°C above 1979-2000 (black line is 2024).

The previous record high temperature was reached on April 24, 2016, when it was 26.8°C, and 1°C above 1979-2000 (grey line is 2016).

The annual maximum temperature in the Tropics is typically reached in April, but very high temperatures were also reached in early May 2023 (orange line is 2023), so the temperature this year may well rise even higher over the next two months.

Meanwhile, we’re still in El Niño, according to NOAA and as illustrated by the image on the right.

The image below shows the monthly temperature anomalies over the past few years through February 2024.

Note that the anomalies in the two above images are calculated from different bases. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, anomalies will be higher.

These high temperatures threaten to cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.