Heat flux forecast to enter Arctic early February 2025

Heat flux forecast to enter Arctic early February 2025

by
[ high temperatures forecast over the North Pole, click on images to enlarge ]

The above image shows a temperature forecast for February 2, 2025 18z, run January 30, 2025 12Z.  The green color indicates temperatures above freezing point. The image below shows the temperature anomaly compared to 1979-2000, with the light pink color over the Arctic indicating a 30°C anomaly. 

[ temperature anomaly vs 1979-2000, click on images to enlarge ]
[ temperature anomaly at North Pole ]
A heat flux is forecast to enter the Arctic early February 2025 that will cause the temperature at the North Pole to be above freezing point and 30°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the above images by Climate Reanalyzer. 
The image on the right shows a forecast run January 27, 2025 12Z, which shows that a large area over the North Pole is forecast to reach an anomaly of 30°C on February 2, 2025 18Z.

The mechanisms leading to this situation have been described in earlier posts, most recently in this post, which adds that as temperatures rise, a huge amount of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and at its surface, and much of this heat is moving toward the Arctic due to acceleration of prevailing wind and ocean currents.   

[ Jet Stream changes, click on images to enlarge ]

Rising temperatures come with several feedbacks, one of which is deformation of the Jet Stream. 

As a result, the movement of heat toward the Arctic can at times be accelerated abruptly by strong longitudinal wind, accompanied by sudden acceleration of the Gulf Stream and its extension northward, as also illustrated by the image on the right with a forecast for February 3, 2025 06Z, of wind speed at 250 hPa (Jet Stream).  
According to nullschool, the temperature is forecast to reach 0.2°C (32.4 F) at the North Pole (green circle) on February 2, 2025 14:00 UTC, as illustrated by the image below, which displays both temperature and wind at 1000 hPa. 
The image below shows a temperature of 1.7°C (35.1°F) is forecast to hit the North Pole (green circle) on February 2, 2025 17:00 UTC at 1000 hPa (left panel) and 0.9°C (33.5°F) at surface (right panel). 
As Arctic sea ice loses volume, this diminishes its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that less incoming ocean heat can be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, resulting in higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. 
[ from earlier post ]
[Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows Arctic sea ice volume up to January 29, 2025. Arctic sea ice volume in 2024 and 2025 has been much lower than in previous years. More incoming heat therefore threatens to reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, as illustrated by the above image.

These are many feedbacks that come with rising the temperatures, and they can contribute strongly to the further acceleration of the temperature rise. One example is more water vapor ending up in the atmosphere, as illustrated by the image below.  
[ precipitable water anomaly ]

Warnings about the potential for a huge rise in temperature have been sounded before, e.g. see the extinction page and the image below with daily data and added trends.

[ temperatures keep rising, despite La Niña, click on images to enlarge ]
While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.29°C on January 26, 2025, the highest temperature on record for the time of year, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to the data, despite La Niña. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?
[ from earlier post ]
[ Humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise ]
Climate Emergency Declaration
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?

• Danish Meteorological Institute – Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Why downplay the need for action?

• Extinction

• pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html